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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, March 7, 2026

The avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep slopes near and above treeline that face NW–N–NE–E. In these areas, hard slab, human-triggered avalanches 2–4 feet deep failing on a buried persistent weak layer remain POSSIBLE. If released, they could step down and involve the entire season’s snowpack.

The decrease in danger should not be mistaken for safe conditions, but rather a reflection of the overall likelihood for triggering an avalanche. The odds have decreased, but the consequences remain the same. Personally, I'll be continuing to avoid steep, northerly aspects near and above treeline.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements

Geyser Pass Road Conditions: The road is plowed and scraped down to the dirt in most areas.

Grooming: No grooming is scheduled. Expect a few inches of fresh snow on trails.

Mountain Film on Tour returns to Star Hall in Moab on Saturday, March 14. Tickets are available online and all proceeds benefit UAC Moab. Look forward to seeing you all there!

All accident reports are completed from the deadly week in northern Utah. Our sincerest condolences to all of those affected.

Weather and Snow

24 Hour Snow: 3" 72 Hour Snow: 4" Season Total Snow: 75" Depth at Gold Basin: 35"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NE 10-15 G 24 Temp: 11°F

Weather

It's cold, clear, and slightly breezy up there this morning with ridge top winds blowing from the northeast. High temps will creep up to around freezing at 10,000 feet, and winds will shift to more southeasterly averaging 5-10 mph but with gusts as high as 20. Conditions look dry and increasingly warmer for the upcoming week.

General Conditions

Today may be your last chance to enjoy a cool, wintery, bluebird day with fresh snow, so if you're still hankering for a winter fix, you better go get it. 4 inches of new snow will certainly help the look of things and turning and riding will be slightly improved. All surfaces prior to the storm were crusted to varying degrees so "dust on crust" will be the soup du jour. Travel will be easy over the underlying, supportable surface. The new snow won't pose much of an avalanche threat - there may be a few shallow, isolated wind drifts in the high country, and we may see some very small, loose wet point releases near the rocks on sun exposed slopes.

The greatest threat from avalanches continues to be on northerly aspects near and above treeline, where hard slabs exist over layers of weak, dry, faceted snow. This is a notoriously unpredictable setup that offers little to no warning before failing. It’s a familiar pattern for seasoned La Sal skiers and riders, and the safest approach remains the same: avoid steep terrain on the north half of the compass.

I took a trip over to the east side yesterday and the lack of snow for this time of year was glaring. I was actually able to drive up to the Beaver Lake hut on the La Sal Pass road. I snapped this photo of the great SE face of Mount Peale, it's haunting on multiple levels.

See all Moab observations here.

Snowpack and Weather Data

Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
No recent avalanches have been observed. The avalanche database has been updated to include all observed avalanches from the last cycle. These are all great examples of the type of avalanche that are possible to trigger.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

It’s been two weeks since the last storm and avalanche cycle. Buried persistent weak layers are slowly adjusting to the load and are becoming more stubborn to trigger. Obvious red flags like collapsing and cracking have faded, but the underlying snowpack structure remains poor. The danger has dropped to moderate, but the consequences of triggering an avalanche remain severe.

On northerly aspects near and above treeline, thick hard slabs—2 to 4 feet deep—rest on top of these persistent weak layers. This is a highly unpredictable setup, and committing to steep slopes with this structure is a gamble. If triggered, avalanches could step down and take out the entire season’s snowpack.

Thin, rocky areas, steep convex rollovers, and slab margins remain likely trigger points. When the payoff for riding steep terrain is minimal, it’s hard to justify the risk. Our approach continues to be simple: avoid steep slopes in this terrain altogether.

I shot this video last Sunday while we were still at considerable danger. We have since moved into moderate but there are some salient points to take home.

Additional Information
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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