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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Nikki Champion
Issued by Nikki Champion on
Thursday morning, December 5, 2024
Overall, the avalanche danger is generally LOW, and normal caution is advised. Triggering an avalanche 1–2 feet deep on our PWL (persistent weak layer) is unlikely but not impossible. In more wind-protected areas, small wet or dry sluffs may be expected in isolated spots or extreme terrain.
Continue practicing safe travel habits: expose only one person at a time to avalanche terrain, have someone observe from a safe location, and avoid traveling above or below other parties.
Low
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Considerable
High
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Special Announcements
The 17th Annual Utah Snow and Avalanche Workshop (USAW) is scheduled for Saturday, December 7th. Information and tickets are available here.
Weather and Snow
This morning, under clear skies, an inversion is present in the mountains. Temperatures range from the upper 20s to low 30s °F along ridgelines and are in the teens at trailheads. Winds are primarily from the northeast, gusting in the teens along mid-elevation ridges and into the upper-20s mph along the highest peaks.
Today will bring another sunny day. Temperatures are expected to rise into the upper 30s to low 40s °F, while northeasterly winds will remain generally light, gusting into the mid-20s mph along the highest peaks.
The outlook remains generally grim through the weekend, but there’s a beacon of hope early next week. A cold front shows promise for light snow on Sunday and Monday, with expected water totals ranging from 0.1 to 0.3 inches and snow totals of 1–4 inches. While modest, 1–4 inches is better than nothing.
Riding conditions remain thin. That said, soft turns can still be found on aspects untouched by the sun or wind, as last week’s storm snow continues to recrystallize and facet. While this makes for enjoyable turns now, it could become a much bigger issue down the road. For more on this, check out the Forecaster’s Corner in the Additional Information section below.
A few soft turns Joey and I found yesterday near the Ant Knolls of Snake Creek - while these turns were nice, most of the travel there was not.
If you’ve got a few extra moments, take a look at a couple of complementary essays from Drew—well worth the read!
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches were reported in the backcountry yesterday.
Find all observations HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Much of our snowpack is completely faceted at this point. On the upper elevation northwest, north, and east-facing slopes, we've got 1–2 feet of weak snow, comprised of a mess of facets and crusts. Dave was up on the North Ogden Divide Tuesday, and found just that.
What’s saving us right now is the minimal slab on top of these weak layers. But once we get more snow—whether from storms or wind loading—things will change fast, and those faceted layers will likely become the weak point that triggers avalanches.
So, what can we do now? We can enjoy some soft turns and sunshine, but it's important to pay attention to where the snow is faceting and where the surface feels damp. Areas holding that cold, faceted snow will be the biggest concern when we head back into a period of low pressure.
Additional Information
Clear, cold conditions can be tough on the snowpack, and high pressure only makes things worse. The strong temperature and vapor pressure gradient transforms new snow crystals into sharp, angular, faceted grains. This is especially noticeable on shady aspects, where the snow feels almost like skiing or riding through sugar. But today’s snow surface will soon become tomorrow’s weak layer—our next Persistent Weak Layer. More on the faceting process HERE.
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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