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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Dave Garcia
Issued by Dave Garcia on
Thursday morning, March 5, 2026

The avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep slopes near and above treeline facing NW–N–NE–E. While these hard slabs have grown more stubborn, human-triggered avalanches 2–4 feet deep failing on a buried persistent weak layer remain POSSIBLE. If released, they could step down and involve the entire season’s snowpack. I am choosing to avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees in this terrain.

The overall danger has decreased to MODERATE, but this should not be mistaken for safe conditions. Hard slab avalanches remain POSSIBLE, and any slide that breaks on this structure would be large enough to bury a person.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements

Geyser Pass Road Conditions: The road is plowed and scraped down to the dirt in most areas.

Grooming: Conditions are pretty rough and we need more snow to groom again.

Mountain Film on Tour returns to Star Hall in Moab on Saturday, March 14. Tickets are available online and all proceeds benefit UAC Moab. Look forward to seeing you all there!

All accident reports are completed from the deadly week in northern Utah. Our sincerest condolences to all of those affected.

Weather and Snow

24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 71" Depth at Gold Basin: 31"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: SW MOD Temp: 31°F

Weather

Under few clouds, it is 31°F in Gold Basin this morning. Winds from the southwest are increasing and will blow 15 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH. This morning will be mostly sunny, but expect increasing cloud cover this afternoon. Light precipitation will begin late this afternoon, with a trace to 1" of new snow by this evening. Daytime highs will reach 36°F at 10,000 feet. Light snowfall will continue through Friday night, with total accumulations of 2 to 4 inches of snow. Sunny skies and warm temperatures return for the weekend.

General Conditions

Yesterday, Travis and I covered a lot of ground searching for quality snow. We focused on northeast and east aspects, hoping for spring-like conditions on high-elevation east faces. Instead, we found firm surfaces with a mix of sun and wind crusts. With increasing cloud cover and light precipitation today, expect a grab bag of crusts on all aspects. The prolonged heat and lack of precipitation have taken a toll on the snowpack, and it’s in need of a major refresh. Unfortunately, the weak system moving through today and tomorrow is unlikely to deliver it.

Although the weather feels like spring, the snowpack still reflects winter. Dry, faceted weak layers remain widespread on northwest through east aspects and continue to pose a serious concern. The greatest risk exists near and above treeline, where hard slabs overlie weak facets. This is a notoriously unpredictable setup that offers little to no warning before failing. It’s a familiar pattern for seasoned La Sal skiers and riders, and the safest approach remains the same: avoid steep terrain on the north half of the compass.

See Eric's excellent video below, where he discusses the current setup. This video will be relevant for some time, as our current avalanche problem is not going away any time soon.

See all Moab observations here.

Snowpack and Weather Data

Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
The avalanche database has been updated to include all observed avalanches from last week's storm cycle. These are all great examples of the type of avalanche you are still likely to trigger.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

It’s been more than ten days since the last storm and avalanche cycle. Buried persistent weak layers are slowly adjusting to the load and are becoming more stubborn to trigger. Obvious red flags like collapsing and cracking have faded, but the underlying snowpack structure remains poor. The danger has dropped to moderate, but the consequences of triggering an avalanche remain severe.

On northerly aspects near and above treeline, thick hard slabs—2 to 4 feet deep—rest on top of these persistent weak layers. This is a highly unpredictable setup, and committing to steep slopes with this structure is a gamble. If triggered, avalanches could step down and take out the entire season’s snowpack.

Thin, rocky areas, steep convex rollovers, and slab margins remain likely trigger points. When the payoff for riding steep terrain is minimal, it’s hard to justify the risk. My approach continues to be simple: avoid steep slopes in this terrain altogether.

Additional Information
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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