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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Dave Garcia
Issued by Dave Garcia on
Wednesday morning, March 4, 2026

The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes near and above treeline facing NW–N–NE–E. While these hard slabs have grown more stubborn, human-triggered avalanches 2–4 feet deep failing on a buried persistent weak layer remain likely. If released, they could step down and involve much of the season’s snowpack. Avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees in this terrain.

A MODERATE danger exists on west-facing slopes near and above treeline and on low-elevation northerly aspects. In these areas, human-triggered avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer are possible.

Low
Moderate
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High
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Special Announcements

Geyser Pass Road Conditions: The road is plowed and scraped down to the dirt in most areas.

Grooming: Conditions are pretty rough and we need more snow to groom again.

Mountain Film on Tour returns to Star Hall in Moab on Saturday, March 14. Tickets are available online and all proceeds benefit UAC Moab. Look forward to seeing you all there!

All accident reports are completed from the deadly week in northern Utah. Our sincerest condolences to all of those affected.

Weather and Snow

24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 71" Depth at Gold Basin: 31"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NW 5 G 10 Temp: 21°F

Weather

Under clear skies, it is 21°F in Gold Basin this morning. Winds blowing from the northwest will swing around and blow from the south-southwest this afternoon with speeds of 5 to 15 MPH and gusts up to 25 MPH. Overnight, temperatures will drop to 27°F, skies will be clear, and wind speeds will increase. A winter storm on Thursday and Friday will mainly affect northern Utah and parts of Colorado. Clouds will build on Thursday with light precipitation. We might pick up 1-2 inches of snow by Friday night. Sunshine and above average temperatures return for the weekend.

General Conditions

There's no way to sugarcoat it, conditions are pretty rough out there on all aspects and elevations. See my report from yesterday. The ongoing heat wave and lack of precipitation are really taking a toll on our already shallow snowpack. At least we got a good overnight refreeze, which will allow for easy travel this morning. Northerly aspects are a mess of wind crusts, melt-freeze crusts, and heavy, damp snow. The best game in town may be pseudo-corn skiing on solars, that is, if you can find a solar aspect with enough snow to ski.

While the weather has already transitioned to spring, the snowpack has not. Dry, faceted weak layers remain widespread northwest to east, and these weak layers still pose a real threat. The greatest danger is near and above treeline, where hard slabs rest above facets. This type of avalanche problem is extremely unpredictable, and you will receive little to no feedback from the snow. This is not an unusual situation for long-time La Sal skiers and riders, and the best strategy is to continue to avoid steep terrain on the north half of the compass.

See Eric's excellent video below, where he discusses the current setup. This video will be relevant for some time, as our current avalanche problem is not going away any time soon.

See all Moab observations here.

Snowpack and Weather Data

Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
The avalanche database has been updated to include all observed avalanches from last week's storm cycle. These are all great examples of the type of avalanche you are still likely to trigger.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

It’s been more than ten days since the last storm and avalanche cycle. Obvious red flags like collapsing and cracking have faded, but the underlying snowpack structure remains poor. Despite warm temperatures and a deceptively stable-looking surface, weak faceted layers are still present below.

On northerly aspects near and above treeline, thick hard slabs—2 to 4 feet deep—rest on top of these persistent weak layers. They’ve grown more stubborn, but if triggered, they have the potential to fail deeply and step down through much of the season’s snowpack.

Thin, rocky areas, steep convex rollovers, and slope margins remain likely trigger points. When the payoff for riding steep terrain is minimal, it’s hard to justify the risk. My approach continues to be simple: avoid steep slopes in this terrain altogether.

Results of an extended column test on a northeast aspect at 10,800 feet, at the upper end of our "below treeline" elevation band. Score was ECTP25 failing on the Feb 11, persistent weak layer. This indicates that avalanches are growing more stubborn to release, but that they are still clearly possible. It's getting to where finding the right trigger point, such as a shallower area on the slab is what it will take. The danger increases with elevation.

Additional Information
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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