Forecast: Ogden Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Issued by Nikki Champion on
Tuesday morning, March 17, 2026

This morning, avalanche danger is LOW, and the snowpack is generally stable. Mountain travel carries inherent risks, and Normal Caution is advised.

Throughout the day, avalanche danger may rise to MODERATE as temperatures climb and skies remain clear. Small wet loose avalanches on sunny, wind-sheltered slopes may become possible. Pay attention to changing conditions; if a slope becomes unsupportable, it’s time to switch aspects.

The high winds should keep most of the wet snow at bay today, but expect avalanche danger to increase over the next few days with this significant warm-up.

(Gray on the danger rose indicates little to no snow.)

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Weather and Snow

This morning, skies are clear, and temperatures are in the upper 30s °F at ridgetops to the low 40s °F at trailheads. Only a few mountain weather stations dropped below freezing overnight, while most stations may not have. Winds are from the west to northwest and are strong, with gusts between 40-50 mph along exposed mid and upper elevation ridges, and near 60 mph on the highest peaks.

Today, skies will remain clear and mostly sunny, with the potential for some high-level clouds. High temperatures are expected to increase by around 10 degrees compared to yesterday, rising into the upper 40s and low 50s °F. Winds will diminish slightly throughout the day but remain strong, gusting into the 20s and 30s mph, up to 45 mph at the highest peaks.

This week, we begin to enter a significant warming trend, with mountain temperatures soaring into the 50s and 60s °F by the end of the week. Temperatures will be more in line with what is typically seen from late May into early June.

Recent Avalanches

We received no reports of avalanches over the last few days.

You can find more observations from the Ogden area mountains HERE.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

We use Normal Caution when the avalanche danger is generally LOW, and there is no specific avalanche problem. Risks are inherent in mountain travel, and there is always the potential for avalanches, including:

Wet snow: Today’s strong winds should help keep the snow surface frozen, but as skies clear and temperatures rise, wet loose avalanches will become possible in sunny, wind-sheltered terrain.

While today does not seem like the day, we want to start thinking about large wet slab avalanches as well. As temperatures continue to climb, we know we have a very structured snowpack with a wide variety of crusts, facets, and layers. Start paying attention to how supportable the snow surface is, how superficial the overnight freezes are, and how saturated the snowpack is becoming. These larger avalanches will likely move to the forefront as the week continues.

Glide avalanches have been releasing naturally in the past week in the Salt Lake mountains and we have some similar terrain in the Ogden mountains. These full-depth and destructive slides are difficult to forecast, and it's worth avoiding known habitat (on steep and smooth rock slabs) and their runout zones, such as the Chilly Peak Slabs.

Wind-drifted snow: You may find small pockets of wind-drifted snow in exposed terrain at the upper elevations.

Cornices: These tend to calve naturally in the spring. Avoid being on or beneath these ridgeline hazards, especially as temperatures rise.

Persistent weak layer (PWL): This was dropped as an avalanche problem this weekend, but the potential still exists for an avalanche to fail on the PWL on steep, north-facing, upper-elevation slopes where the snowpack is unsupported, such as around rocks. See the conversation in the general announcements below. With skyrocketing temperatures, the PWL could return to the forecast in the next few days.

Additional Information

What does it mean to drop the PWL?

Graphic courtesy of Joe Stock's 2024 piece in The Avalanche Review.

You'll notice that we dropped the persistent weak layer (PWL)—that's responsible for 4 deaths since mid-February—as a problem yesterday. What we want you to know is that there is a fair bit of uncertainty around dropping a PWL from the forecast. We don't drop a PWL because it's impossible to trigger. In fact, it is literally impossible to be 100% certain that there is not a single lingering weakness. As seen in the graphic, a PWL comes with an inherently higher amount of uncertainty, as do glide avalanches—like the one that ran in Broads. Know as you travel today that uncertainty lingers in the mountains—and we deal with uncertainty by adding margins.

Uncertainty is a tough thing to communicate in avalanche forecasting; that's why multiple PhDs are studying it. An important finding so far is that explicitly stating our uncertainty in our forecasts increases trust in the avalanche center.

So keep this in mind: there’s still uncertainty around the PWL. As temperatures rise later this week, it may reappear in the forecast. The snowpack remains very structured, and with the warming, it could drive some large, destructive wet slab avalanches.

General Announcements

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures