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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, March 2, 2026

The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes near and above treeline that face NW-N-NE-E. Although becoming more stubborn to release, human-triggered, hard slab avalanches 2 to 4 feet deep, failing on a buried persistent weak layer remain likely. These avalanches could step down and release the entire season’s snowpack. Avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees in these areas.

A MODERATE danger exists on west facing slopes near and above treeline, and on low elevation, northerly aspects. In these areas, human triggered avalanches, failing on a persistent weak layer are possible.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements

Geyser Pass Road Conditions: The road is plowed and scraped down to the dirt in most areas.

Grooming: Conditions are pretty rough and we need more snow to groom again.

Mountain Film on Tour returns to Star Hall in Moab on Saturday, March 14. Tickets are available online and all proceeds benefit UAC Moab. Look forward to seeing you all there!

Weather and Snow

24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 71" Depth at Gold Basin: 32"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: SW 15-20 Temp: 38°F

Weather

10,000 foot temperatures are again above freezing and we may see record breaking high temperatures today. A closed low pressure system to the north will feed clouds into the area today, along with blustery winds blowing from the southwest. Unfortunately, all of the action stays well to the north but at least we'll get a cool down tonight with the passage of the cold front. Clouds linger into Tuesday morning with gradual clearing throughout the day. Wednesday looks sunny and warm ahead of the next system on Thursday. This storm dips a little further south but we'll be lucky to squeeze an inch or two out of it.

General Conditions

In my travels yesterday I observed lots of things unbecoming of winter including runnels in the snow surface and a puddle of standing water next to bare ground at Geyser Pass (10,600 feet). The snow surface was damp, although supportable, everywhere I traveled but I didn't very high. You have to go high to find dry snow and this is also where you are most likely to find avalanche problems. Avalanches are becoming more stubborn to release, and outward signs of instability are no longer present, but the threat remains real. People continue to trigger dangerous avalanches over in the San Juan Mountains with a similar snowpack. Between the danger and overall snow conditions, It's not a great picture out there right now.

See all Moab observations here.

Snowpack and Weather Data

Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
The avalanche database has been updated to include all observed avalanches from last week's storm cycle. These are all great examples of the type of avalanche you are still likely to trigger.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

It's been about 10 days since the last storm and avalanche cycle. Red flag signs of instability such as collapsing and cracking are no longer evident but poor snowpack structure remains. In spite of the warm temperatures and misleading snow surface, layers of weak faceted snow still exist underneath. On northerly aspects near and above treeline, thick hard slabs 2-4 feet thick exist over these persistent weak layers. Although becoming more stubborn to release, when they do they are capable of taking out the entire season's snowpack. Likely trigger points include thin, rocky areas, steep convexities, and areas along slope margins but my strategy continues to be avoidance of steep slopes in these areas entirely.

Results of an extended column test on a northeast aspect at 10,800 feet, at the upper end of our "below treeline" elevation band. Score was ECTP25 failing on the Feb 11, persistent weak layer. This indicates that avalanches are growing more stubborn to release, but that they are still clearly possible. It's getting to where finding the right trigger point, such as a shallower area on the slab is what it will take. The danger increases with elevation.

Additional Information
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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