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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Friday morning, February 27, 2026

The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes near treeline and above that face NW-N-NE-E. Human-triggered, hard slab avalanches 2 to 4 feet deep, failing on a buried persistent weak layer remain likely. These avalanches could step down and release the entire season’s snowpack. Avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees in these areas.

A MODERATE danger exists on west facing slopes near and above treeline, and on low elevation, northerly aspects. In these areas, human triggered avalanches, failing on a persistent weak layer are possible.

Remain aware of the potential for loose, wet avalanche activity on sun exposed slopes as the day heats up. Signs of instability include rollerballs, pinwheels, and sloppy wet snow. Stay off of, and out from under steep slopes if these signs are present.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements

Geyser Pass Road Conditions: The road is plowed and scraped down to the dirt in most areas.

Grooming: Conditions are pretty rough.

Mountain Film on Tour returns to Star Hall in Moab on Saturday, March 14. Tickets are available online and all proceeds benefit UAC Moab. Look forward to seeing you all there!

Weather and Snow

24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 71" Depth at Gold Basin: 34"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NW 15-20 Temp: 27°F

Weather

Mercifully, overnight lows dropped below freezing last night. Unseasonably warm days lie ahead with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low to mid 40's at 10,000 feet. We should see some clouds develop late Saturday and into Sunday as a weak disturbance passes by to the north. A low pressure system moves into our area Monday-Tuesday kicking off a period of unsettled weather next week.

General Conditions

Our one week of winter is already a distant memory as wind and warm temperatures have taken their toll. Reaching a peak depth of 48 inches last Friday, the height of snow has already shrunk to 34 inches. Sun exposed slopes are crusted over and this includes west and east aspects at lower to mid elevations. Many south aspects are back down to the rocks. Low elevation northerlies are mashed potatoes, with dense dry snow found above about 10,800 - 11,000'. Winds have blasted exposed slopes up high.

Last week's storm cycle has settled into a dense, 4f slab 8"-12" thick on top of the Feb 11, faceted weak layer. The slab is damp at low and mid elevations. It provides for supportable travel, but it's quite disconcerting to step out of the skis and punch through the underlying facets. Most facet layers remain dry. For more details, see my observation from yesterday.

Thin cover on south aspects.

See all Moab observations here.

Snowpack and Weather Data

Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
The avalanche database has been updated to include all observed avalanches since last Friday's storm. These are all great examples of the type of avalanche you are still likely to trigger.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Last week's storm cycle has settled into a dense, slab 8"-12" thick on top of the Feb 11, faceted weak layer. On west facing slopes near and above treeline, and on low elevation, northerly aspects, human triggered, avalanches failing on this weak layer are possible. The danger is much more acute on steep, northerly aspects, near and above treeline, where hard slabs 2 to 4 feet thick now rest above this weak, faceted layer. Human-triggered avalanches failing on the 2/11 layer remain likely, and once triggered, may step down deeper into the snowpack resulting in much more destructive and deadly avalanches.

It's been a week since the last storm and natural avalanche cycle, and obvious red flag signs of instability such as collapsing and cracking are no longer evident. But make no mistake, many steep slopes that did not avalanche during Friday’s storm remain primed for release. The safest strategy is to continue to avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees.

Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

With abnormally warm weather, wet-loose activity should be on your radar. I don't expect wet activity to be all that widespread today, but it is hard to ignore these extremely warm temperatures. Be on the lookout for the usual signs of wet snow avalanches, including pinwheels, rollerballs, saturated snow, and punching deep on solar aspects. If you are experiencing any of these red flags, it is time to change aspects or head home.

Additional Information
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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