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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, February 16, 2026

A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on steep slopes near and above treeline that face NW-N-NE-E. In these areas, wind thickened slabs exist over top of a persistent weak layer of faceted snow and human triggered avalanches are possible. Signs of instability include collapsing and cracking in the snow surface. Avoid wind drifted slopes steeper than 30 degrees.

A prolonged period of windy and stormy weather is on our doorstep. Expect a potentially dramatic rise in avalanche danger over the coming days.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements

Geyser Pass Road Conditions: The recent snow has been well packed in by traffic. Icy conditions exist up high and it's melted out to the dirt down low. AWD with good tires recommended.

Grooming: LUNA groomed all trails on Saturday.

We have rescheduled our Moab Backcountry 101 Class to February 20, 21. Click here for information and registration. Moab and Monticello locals can use the discount code MOAB-LOCAL for a 10% discount.

Weather and Snow

24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 1" Season Total Snow: 49" Depth at Gold Basin: 30"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: SSE 25-30 G 32 Temp: 31°F

Weather

Hold on to your hats! A deepening low-pressure system along the West Coast is setting up a strong southwesterly flow over the region resulting in warm and windy conditions ahead of a prolonged period of stormy weather. Under cloudy skies, winds blowing from the southwest will average 20-30 mph along ridge tops with gusts as high as 50 mph. High temperatures at 10,000 feet will be in the upper 30's. Snowfall should begin after midnight tonight and continue into Tuesday with 4-6 inches possible. Tuesday will see continued very windy conditions and more winter-like temperatures with highs in the low 20's. A second trough moves through on Wednesday bringing another shot of snow followed by yet another on Friday.

General Conditions

It's been several days since our last storm and the snow in many areas has been subjected to the ravages of wind and sun. Soft snow can still be found on sheltered, northerly aspects if you're willing to brave the cloudy, warm, and windy conditions up there today. The recent snow fell on a variety of surfaces but on shady slopes the snowpack was entirely faceted through. Recently buried, weak surface snow is our primary layer of concern for now. Strong southerly winds have likely stiffened slabs on northerly aspects, adding just a little more stress to this buried weak layer. Evaluate terrain carefully today and avoid steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Over the coming days, the likelihood for avalanches failing on this layer will increase, with even deeper and more dangerous avalanches possible.

See all recent observations here.

Snowpack and Weather Data

SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
See all La Sal avalanches here.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

The entire snowpack is faceted through on shady aspects providing a variety of weak layers. The immediate layer of concern is right beneath the most recent snow. Slab avalanches failing on this layer could be up to a foot deep and 100 feet wide. The danger is most acute on slopes that have seen recent wind drifting. Although the recent load was not enough to tip the scales, the spring is set and human triggered avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer will become increasingly more likely over the coming days. As more weight is applied to our fragile snowpack, the likelihood for avalanches failing deeper in the snowpack will also increase. A foot or more of new snow over the next several days will put us over the edge and I would anticipate a natural cycle. It's time to start scaling it back.

Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Look for fresh slabs of wind drifted snow on slopes facing NW-N-NE-E. These fresh, shallow deposits would be mostly inconsequential but the concern will be their possible effects on buried weak layers in the snowpack. For this reason, steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow should be avoided. Wind drifted slopes often have a smooth rounded appearance, and cracking is a sign of instability.

Additional Information
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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