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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Dave Garcia
Issued by Dave Garcia on
Wednesday morning, February 11, 2026

This morning, the avalanche danger is LOW on all aspects and elevations. Your primary concern is loose dry avalanches in steep terrain. These avalanches can easily knock you off your feet and carry you over a cliff or into trees.

A warm, wet, and windy storm is on our doorstep. Expect the avalanche danger to rise in the coming days as new snow piles up. A small amount of new snow today won't increase the danger, but if the bulk of the storm arrives early, the hazard could rise to MODERATE by the end of the day. Pay close attention to changing conditions as the storm plays out.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements

Check out this recent blog post from Forest Service UAC Director Paige Pagnucco Weak Snow: Today's Surface, Tomorrow's Avalanche Problem.

Drew Hardesty has a new blog titled "The Greatest Rain on Earth."

Geyser Pass Road Conditions: The road is down to the dirt down low while sections of packed snow and ice remain above. AWD with good tires recommended.

Grooming: LUNA groomed all trails last Monday.

We are looking to reschedule our Moab Backcountry 101 Class to February 20, 21 in the hopes that we will have more snow. Click here for information and registration. Moab and Monticello locals can use the discount code MOAB-LOCAL for a 10% discount.

Weather and Snow

24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 44" Depth at Gold Basin: 26"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: S 15-20 G 25-30 Temp: 33°F

Weather

Under overcast skies, it is 33°F in Gold Basin this morning. Today, a low-pressure system arrives on a southwest flow. Temperatures will remain warm, with highs in the low 30s°F at 10,000 feet. Rain is expected below 8,000 feet. Winds will blow from the southwest around 15 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH. Snowfall will begin this morning. The timing of the heaviest precipitation is uncertain. The National Weather Service shows the bulk of the snow falling today, but digging a little deeper into the models, it looks to me like the heaviest precipitation will occur on Thursday into Friday morning. Orographics could come into play Friday morning, giving us one final burst of precipitation before the storm exits our area late in the day on Friday. One thing is for sure - it will snow. We can expect a total of 4 to 6 inches by the time it is all said and done.

General Conditions

The existing snow surface is quite variable, and any new snow will be a welcome refresh. Conditions will improve as the storm progresses. This morning, you can expect to find hard crusts and bare spots on solar aspects. Very loose, weak, faceted snow is widespread on shady slopes on many aspects and all elevations. These weak near-surface facets even exist in some above treeline terrain. The highest terrain in the alpine is generally wind-blasted and consists of old, hard slabs and wind crusts.

Widespread weak snow near the surface means it won’t take much of a new load for avalanches to become possible. The incoming storm is expected to be warm and wet, setting the stage for a developing storm slab problem over the next several days. Avalanche danger starts out low this morning, but will increase as new snow accumulates. Pay close attention to how quickly snow is piling up throughout the day. Moderate to strong southwest winds will form slabs on leeward slopes, and avalanche danger will continue to rise as the storm persists into tomorrow and Friday.

See all recent observations here.

Snowpack and Weather Data

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
Yesterday, my party triggered several loose dry avalanches in steep northerly terrain.
See recent avalanches here.
Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Skiers and riders will need to exercise normal caution in the backcountry today. This means paying attention to changing conditions as the storm rolls in. This morning, the danger is low, and the main concern is loose, dry avalanches of weak surface snow in steep terrain. These avalanches are entraining a lot of snow, and can take you for a ride if you do not get out of the fall line.

The same weak snow that is responsible for loose dry avalanches will become a problem weak layer once buried. Incoming snow will be warm, wet, and driven by southwest winds. The timing of the snow is uncertain, but if enough snow accumulates during the day, expect a corresponding increase in danger. You will want to look for signs of a developing storm slab. These signs include heavy snow on top of weak snow, cracking beneath your skis, and cohesive blocks releasing from ski cuts or pit walls. Slabs will develop more quickly in leeward terrain near and above treeline.

Additional Information
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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