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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Wednesday morning, January 7, 2026

The avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep slopes near and above tree line that face NW-N-NE-E. The problems are two fold and human triggered avalanches involving both wind drifted snow, and avalanches stepping down into buried persistent weak layers are possible. You are most likely to encounter unstable slabs of wind drifted snow on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features above tree line.

Deeper and more dangerous avalanches involving a persistent weak layer are possible on these same aspects near tree line and above. The only way to avoid this problem is to avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees in these areas.

Conditions remain very thin, and hazards such as rocks and logs have just been thinly covered.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements

Geyser Pass Road Conditions: The road has melted out to the dirt on the lower end. Above about Trans La Sal it is snowpacked, icy, and slick. The parking lot is a mess. All wheel drive and good tires are required.

Grooming: LUNA groomed all trails from Gold Basin through Geyser Pass with classic track yesterday. Thanks Matt!

We are looking to reschedule our Moab Backcountry 101 Class to February 20, 21 in the hopes that we will have more snow. Click here for information and registration. Moab and Monticello locals can use the discount code MOAB-LOCAL for a 10% discount.

Weather and Snow

24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 32" Depth at Gold Basin: 20"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: S 20-25 Temp: 26° F

Weather

Southerly winds have been on the increase since about midnight. Look for developing clouds today as southwest flow aloft ushers in a low pressure system from northern Baja. Tonight will be mostly cloudy with a chance for snow showers. On Thursday, a second trough and associated cold front from the northwest will merge with the trough from northern Baja, bringing our best chance for snow to the mountains. About 4 inches seem likely. The passage of the cold front mid-day will see temperatures plummet to near or even below normal, dropping into the single digits Thursday night. Things start to clear out on Friday but it will remain cold and windy. After that, if you haven't heard, prepare for an extended dry period of high pressure.

General Conditions

Conditions aren't quite as good as they were over the weekend but I'm surprised at how well they are holding up. I took a trip over to the east side of Geyser Pass yesterday where I continued to find soft snow on all but the most southerly aspects. There is some wind affect here and there, especially above tree line with alternating scouring and drifting, but as soon as you drop down just a little bit, it's still pretty good. On shady slopes, snow depths range from about 20 inches at 10,000 feet to up to 3 feet or more at upper elevations. Southerly aspects were mostly bare prior to the New Year's storm, but thanks to the high snow density, they remain mostly covered, Snowpack structure remains poor with plenty of weak, faceted snow beneath the Christmas rain crust.

South facing terrain still holding snow. Mount Tomaski on the right, Mann's Peak above Burro Pass on the left.

Snowpack and Weather Data

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
No recent activity has been observed. Click here for the complete avalanche database.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Poor snowpack structure exists on all slopes facing the north half of the compass. In these areas the entire snowpack is loose, weak, and faceted beneath the Christmas rain crust. Red flags such as collapsing and whumphing are not widespread but they are occurring. In spite of the poor structure, we've had surprisingly non-reactive test results. In my travels yesterday, however, I was able to produce a score of ECTP23 in an extended column test on a NE aspect right around tree line at 11,000'. On Sunday, Chris and Morgan Orozco produced a score of ECTP7 in an extended column test also on NE aspect. Read their complete observation here. These are clear indications that it is possible to trigger an avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer.

The likelihood of triggering an avalanche largely depends on the strength and thickness of the rain crust in various locations. If you are into splitting hairs, the most likely areas to find trouble are right around tree line, in places where the rain crust is very thin. Personally, I'm just not willing to trust the strength of the crust with my life and I'll be avoiding northerly aspects steeper than 30 degrees for awhile.

Results of my extended column test yesterday. Note the thickness of the slab failing on deeply buried facets near the ground. An avalanche of this size and depth would be very dangerous.

Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
With the increase in southerly winds overnight, you'll need to remain on the lookout for unstable slabs of wind drifted snow today. You are most likely to encounter this problem on steep slopes above tree line that face NW-N-NE-E. Look for fresh deposits of wind drifted snow on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features. Wind drifted areas often have a smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability.
Additional Information
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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