Issued by Toby Weed on Thursday morning, January 7, 2021
Dangerous avalanche conditions and CONSIDERABLE danger exist on drifted upper and mid elevation slopes, and people are likely to trigger avalanches failing on a sugary persistent weak layer near the ground. Avalanches are most likely on upper and mid elevation slopes facing northwest through southeast with deposits of wind drifted snow, but also possible in sheltered and lower elevation terrain. Avalanches could be triggered remotely or from a distance.
Cracking and collapsing indicate unstable snow.
Evaluate snow carefully, choose your route cautiously, and make conservative decisions.
Avoid and stay out from under drifted slopes steeper than about 30 degrees.
On January 7th, 2020, an inbounds avalanche at Silver Mountain Ski Resort in northern Idaho claimed the lives of three skiers. Molly Hubbard, born and raised in Providence, UT was sadly one of the victims. It is everyone’s hope to preserve their memory and to raise awareness of avalanche safety nationwide. On Thursday, January 7th, 2021 at 11:04 am anywhere on earth, any one in any place, on any mountain please join in a moment of silence to honor the victims. At 11:05, ring a bell, click your ski poles or give a holler to the mountains to spread the message of avalanche safety. The Silver Mountain community hopes to use this day each year to raise money for IPAC (Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center) and avalanche education to continue advocacy for avalanche safety protocols. To help; make a donation to IPAC, your local avalanche center or your local search and rescue. Donate at: https://www.idahopanhandleavalanche.org/donate. Stay safe out there. Be situationally aware. Have fun.
Weather and Snow
About a foot of new snow accumulated Monday night in the Bear River Range at upper elevations. It's 25°F this morning and there is 38 inches of total snow, with 77% of normal SWE at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel. Southwest wind are blowing around 27 mph and gusting into the upper 30s at the CSI Logan Peak weather station at 9700'. Heavy new snow and drifting from strong westerly winds earlier in the week overloaded widespread preexisting sugary weak snow, and created dangerous avalanche conditions in the backcountry.
We went for a ride to look at the new snow in the Tony Grove Area, and here are the results of some of out tests:
There is a good chance for some snow in the mountains today, but little accumulation is expected. It will be party sunny, with 8500' high temperatures expected to be around 24°F. A westerly breeze will keep temperatures cool. Winds will veer from the the south overnight, and it will be party sunny and breezy in the mountains tomorrow. Snow is expected tomorrow night, with 1 to 3 inches of accumulation at upper elevations.
Recent Avalanches
Riders in upper Providence Canyon yesterday remote triggered a few good sized avalanches from a good distance away in the flats...
A remote triggered avalanche in lower Three Terraces Bowl above the warming hut.
The riders also remotely triggered a couple avalanches on the East Face of Providence Peak.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The buried persistent weak layer problem involving sugary faceted snow is a very dangerous and notoriously tricky avalanche problem, and it is responsible for most fatalities, injuries, and close calls in the Logan Zone.
I found these nice large faceted grains or depth hoar buried near the ground in Steep Hollow on Monday, 1-4-2021.
Avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer can be very sensitive, and they might be triggered remotely, from a distance, or worse from below!
Cracking and collapsing of the snow are a red flag, indicating unstable snow conditions.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
People could trigger 1 to 3-foot-thick slab avalanches of recently or previously wind drifted snow on steep slopes, especially where drifts formed on slopes with preexisting weak surface snow or buried persistent weak layers. Watch for and avoid stiffer drifted snow at upper and mid elevations near ridge tops and in and around terrain features like gullies, cliff bands, and sub ridges. Avalanches of wind drifted snow could be triggered remotely or from a distance.
Harder wind slabs may allow people to get out on them before releasing.
Additional Information
Check out our new and relevant Blog featuring Paige and Greg discussing Danger Ratings and Persistent Weak Layers....HER
My tip for avoiding avalanches in the backcountry is to keep your slope angles low. Avoid and stay out from under slopes steeper than about 30 degrees. Get a tool to measure slope angle and practice with it in the backcountry. Watch the video HERE.
Paige shows what we are talking about when we mention faceted snow in our forecasts. Watch the video HERE
General Announcements
Thanks to the generous support of our local resorts, Ski Utah, and Backcountry, discount lift tickets are now available. Support the UAC while you ski at the resorts this season. Tickets are available here.
EMAIL ADVISORY. If you would like to get the daily advisory by email you subscribe HERE.
Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations....HERE. You can also call us at 801-524-5304, email by clickingHERE, or include #utavy in your tweet or Instagram.
I will update this forecast by around 7:30 tomorrow morning.
This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
