Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Saturday morning, December 7, 2019
There's two distinct avalanche problems today with two distinct outcomes.
Unmanageable-
In the wind zone at upper elevations, you'll find MODERATE avalanche danger on steep slopes facing the north half of the compass. Human triggered avalanches are possible, particularly on upper elevation slopes harboring weak, pre-existing snow. Remember- any avalanche that breaks to old snow near the ground may quickly get out of hand, resulting in a deep and dangerous slide.
Manageable-
In addition, while there's not an abundance of loose snow available to blow around, winds are cranking and the Uinta's are a big place. That said, I bet there's a fresh wind slab or two that'll react to our additional weight. Along the leeward side of upper elevation ridges you'll find a MODERATE avalanche danger. Human triggered avalanches breaking within the newly formed wind drifts are possible.
Here's your exit strategy-
Wind sheltered low elevation terrain that held no old snow prior to the Thanksgiving storm generally offers LOW avalanche danger and human triggered avalanches are unlikely. South facing terrain with no old snow and big open meadows with no steep terrain above or adjacent to where you're riding are the ticket.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Get out of the valley gunk and you'll be treated to fresh mountain air and partly cloudy skies. Storminess is on tap for late tonight and the warm before the storm developed whilst we were sleeping. South and southeast winds ramped up right around 9:00, blowing steadily in the 30's with gusts to 50 mph along the high ridges. Temperatures are in the teens and mid 20's. The big Thanksgiving storm settled quite a bit, but we have a respectable snowpack with total snow depths averaging just under three feet.
Travel is a bit more reasonable, but remember.... the Uinta's are made of huge boulders, so rock free roads and meadows are your safest bet.
For today-
Look for increasing clouds as the day progresses. High temperatures climb into the mid 30's. Southerly winds are gonna be a nuisance, blowing in the 30's and 40's, gusting to 60 mph along the high peaks. A decent looking storm slides through the region late tonight through Sunday, bringing periods of snow particularly early Sunday morning. Light snow may linger into Sunday night before tapering off. Storm totals in the 6"-8" range look reasonable.... maybe we squeeze out a foot of snow in favored terrain on the North Slope.
Above is 24 hour weather data from Windy Peak (11,186') and Trial Lake (9,945')
Click here for more real time Uinta winds, temperatures, and snow depth.
Recent Avalanches
Our main man Ted Scroggin was in the Whitney zone Wednesday cataloging recent avalanche activity from the big Thanksgiving storm. The images above clearly illustrate the scope of the avalanche problem we're dealing with on steep, upper elevation slopes, facing the north half of the compass. While the snowpack slowly gains strength and avalanche activity has tempered somewhat, the scary fact is... any slide you trigger in terrain that has weak, old snow near the ground, there's a distinct possibility it'll produce a deep, dangerous avalanche. More on Ted's travel and insights are found here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
It's been a couple days since we've heard from our problem child, the persistent weak layer, now buried close to the ground in our early season snowpack... and of course, that's good news. But here's where it gets a little tricky. As the pack gets stronger it lures us into steep terrain, often without incident, giving us a false sense of snowpack stability. However, all we need to do is find one weakness, maybe around a bush or rock that we can't see buried underneath the snow, collapse the pack, and now we're staring down the barrel of a scary avalanche. The way I'm avoiding this scenario is by simply avoiding the terrain where this setup exists- steep, upper elevation, north facing slopes that harbored snow prior to the big Thanksgiving storm. With plenty of safe options, there's no reason to pull on the avalanche dragons tail.
But wait.... here's the good news. There's a lot of terrain to ride today and not have to deal with unmanageable avalanche conditions, IF you chose slopes that had NO old snow prior to the big Thanksgiving storm.
Ted's snow profile from a north facing slope in upper Whitney Basin reveals our current problematic setup... the big Thanksgiving storm rests on weak snow near the ground.
So here's your exit strategy... simply swing around to the south half of the compass where there's no junk in the trunk, ride in the sun, and you can have a blast!
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
While there's not an abundance of loose snow available to blow around, the Uinta's are a huge range and I bet, shallow, fresh wind drifts will react to our additional weight. Found mostly on upper elevation leeward slopes, there might also be a pocket or two of wind drifted snow cross loaded in a terrain feature like a gully or chute. Your best bet for avoidance is to simply steer clear of any fat, rounded piece of snow, especially if it looks chalky or sounds hollow like a drum. In addition, look for and listen to clues like whoomphing sounds or shooting cracks in the snow which are sure signs of unstable conditions.
Additional Information
The First Annual Avalanche Awareness Week is this week, running from December 2-7
We have a week full of fun and educational events planned. Check out the schedule here.
As part of your early season tune-up, consider taking an avalanche class. We have lots of avalanche education classes listed already, from Know Before You Go to Companion Rescue to our Backcountry 101. Click on the Education menu on our webpage for a full list of classes from the UAC and other providers. Check out the Know Before You Go eLearning program for free, online, avalanche classes.
Please join me on Friday Dec. 13th at 6:30 for a free avalanche awareness presentation in partnership with Wasatch County SAR. It's guaranteed to be entertaining, informative, and I'll share safety tips that allow you to rip powder safely and come home to your families at the end of the day.... pretty good deal... huh?
General Announcements
The information in this forecast expires in 24 hours, but will be updated by 7:30 AM Sunday Dec. 8th.
This forecast is updated daily by 7:30 AM.
In the mean-time, if you see or trigger an avalanche or just wanna let me know what you're seeing you can reach me directly at 801-231-2170
It'll be a minute or two before we're riding, but while you're waiting....
This is a great time of year to schedule one of our free avy awareness presentations.
You can email me directly [email protected]
The information in this forecast is from the US Forest Service which is solely responsible for its content.