Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Thursday morning, March 19, 2026

Very warm temperatures are moving in through the rest of the week. This may affect avalanche conditions.

As things continue to warm through the day today, the avalanche danger will rise to MODERATE above 9500' on slopes that face northwest, north, northeast and east.

If you find yourself punching deep into slushy, sloppy snow, the snowpack is becoming unstable, and you should avoid being on or below steep slopes.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Weather and Snow

General Conditions: The meltdown continues. Snow depths continue to decrease each day. The snowpack was supportable above 9500' on Wednesday morning. By midday, the snowpack was falling apart, and my sled was punching deep into unconsolidated slush. Riding conditions are poor. Temperatures were into the 50s on Wednesday with light wind from the west. Temperatures only cooled into the upper 30s overnight.

Mountain Weather: Warm weather continues today and through the week. Expect high temperatures up near 60°F today. Wind from the west will be generally light. Friday and Saturday are warmer still, then things cool slightly on Sunday. Overall, warm weather continues next week with no storms in sight.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Overall, that snowpack was generally stable on Wednesday. Old faceted snow from the January dry spell, now buried within the snowpack, remains a concern. The crux of this problem is how the old dry facets will react as they become damp. Above 9500' on northerly facing terrain, the facets were still cold and dry on Wednesday. They will probably remain dry today but it is possible that they will become damp over the next few days. Once they become damp, we may see some natural avalanches breaking to the ground. However, this could totally be a non-event and we may not see avalanches at all. This is a tricky situation to predict.

All that said, it is unlikely that this problem will affect anyone because access to the terrain where these avalanches may occur is so difficult. Shallow snow or no snow at all very much limits where we can travel. Places where there is snow, the snowpack is falling apart, and you are sinking deep into it, at least on machines. It is very difficult to control a machine in these types of conditions so it is unlikely that anyone will actually get into much serious avalanche terrain.

General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.