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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, January 5, 2026

The avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep slopes near and above tree line that face NW-N-NE-E. The problems are two fold and human triggered avalanches involving both wind drifted snow, and avalanches stepping down into buried persistent weak layers are possible. You are most likely to encounter unstable slabs of wind drifted snow on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features above tree line.

Deeper and more dangerous avalanches involving a persistent weak layer are possible on these same aspects near tree line and above. The only way to avoid this problem is to avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees in these areas.

Conditions remain very thin, and hazards such as rocks and logs have just been thinly covered.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements

Geyser Pass Road Conditions: Many folks have made it up over the past couple of days and the recent snow has been packed down. It is slick, however, with sections of ice and mud down low and packed snow up high. The parking lot remains a good place to get stuck. 4x4 required.

Grooming: Grooming will again commence this week.

Friday, January 30 - Saturday, January 31 - Moab Backcountry 101 Class - Our annual local backcountry avalanche class. Click here for information and registration. Moab and Monticello locals can use the discount code MOAB-LOCAL for a 10% discount.

Weather and Snow

24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 32" Depth at Gold Basin: 20"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: SW 15-20 G 38 Temp: 27° F

Weather

Southwest flow aloft is bringing upper level moisture and strong warm air advection into the region. Most of the action is to the north unfortunately, but if we're lucky we'll squeeze out a few inches of snow. Winds blowing from the southwest have been cranking in the 20-25 mph range along ridge tops with gusts as high as 45 mph for the last 24 hours. They'll continue to blow similarly up there today. High temps at 10,000 feet will be near 30°F. Tues-Wed look dry and mostly sunny. The much hoped for colder system on Thursday continues to weaken in my view but keep the dream alive.

General Conditions

It was great to see everyone out this weekend for the best conditions of the season and thanks to all who sent in observations. All told we picked up 10 inches of snow at 2.3 inches of snow water equivalent (SWE) from the Thu-Fri storm event. The new snow has settled significantly over the past couple of days and conditions aren't quite as good as they were but you can still find good turns on sheltered terrain. On shady slopes, snow depths range from about 20 inches at 10,000 feet to up to 3 feet or more at upper elevations. Southwest winds have begun to scour exposed windward slopes while alternately loading leeward aspects, primarily slopes facing N and E. For more on that, see these observations from Sam Van Wetter and Chris Benson. Snowpack structure remains poor with plenty of weak, faceted snow beneath the Christmas rain crust. For more on that see Dave's observation from our travels into Gold Basin on Saturday, and watch the video below.

Snowpack and Weather Data

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
No recent activity has been observed. Click here for the complete avalanche database.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Poor snowpack structure exists on all slopes facing the north half of the compass. In these areas the entire snowpack is loose, weak, and faceted beneath the Christmas rain crust. In many areas, the rain crust does seem to be providing a barrier and the likelihood for triggering an avalanche is spotty. Stability tests are not producing propagation and other red flags such as collapsing and whumphing are not widespread but they are occurring. This makes it hard to tell where you are likely to trigger an avalanche and where you aren't. It largely depends on the strength and thickness of the rain crust in various locations. If you are into splitting hairs, the most likely areas to find trouble are right around tree line, in places where the rain crust is very thin. Personally, I'm just not willing to trust the strength of the crust with my life and I'll be avoiding northerly aspects steeper than 30 degrees for awhile.

Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Avalanches involving wind drifted snow remain possible today. You are most likely to encounter this problem on steep slopes above tree line that face NW-N-NE-E. Look for fresh deposits of wind drifted snow on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features. Wind drifted areas often have a smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability.
Additional Information
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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